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Martin Hockaday v Manny Hopkins (Thu 14 Feb 2013)

Match won by Martin Hockaday. Result: 15-6,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for Martin Hockaday: 1,887, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Manny Hopkins: 1,245, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Martin Hockaday to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Manny Hopkins.

Martin Hockaday won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Hockaday played 48% better than Manny Hopkins in this match.

In this case, Martin Hockaday played at level 1,848 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Manny Hopkins is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Hockaday: 84%, Manny Hopkins: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Hockaday: 83%, Manny Hopkins: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Hockaday: 1,884, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Manny Hopkins: 1,243, level confidence: 91%.