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Jessica Foster v Joni Duncan (Mon 25 Feb 2013)

Match won by Joni Duncan. Result: 15-13,7-15,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Jessica Foster: 243, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Joni Duncan: 125, level confidence: 49%.
Jessica Foster to win as she is currently playing 94% better than Joni Duncan.

Joni Duncan won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joni Duncan played 27% better than Jessica Foster in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joni Duncan actually played at a level of 197 and Jessica Foster at a level of 155. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joni Duncan changes to +38% and Jessica Foster changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joni Duncan becomes +19.4% and for Jessica Foster becomes -18%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Joni Duncan is +15% and for Jessica Foster is -13%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joni Duncan is limited to +10% and Jessica Foster is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joni Duncan: 70%, Jessica Foster: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joni Duncan: 44%, Jessica Foster: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jessica Foster: 229, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Joni Duncan: 137, level confidence: 44%.