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Hilary Birt v Emma Booth (Mon 25 Feb 2013)

Match won by Hilary Birt. Result: 15-10,16-14,8-15,18-16.

Starting level for Hilary Birt: 230, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Emma Booth: 160, level confidence: 10%.
Hilary Birt to win as she is currently playing 44% better than Emma Booth.

Hilary Birt won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hilary Birt played 18% better than Emma Booth in this match.

As Hilary Birt has played below her allowed range at 199, her level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Hilary Birt would normally have been playing at level 221 (based on typical behaviour), Emma Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hilary Birt changes to -0.8% and Emma Booth changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hilary Birt becomes -0.8% and for Emma Booth becomes +4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Hilary Birt is -0.6% and for Emma Booth is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hilary Birt: 73%, Emma Booth: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hilary Birt: 67%, Emma Booth: 29%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hilary Birt: 228, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Emma Booth: 166, level confidence: 29%.