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Mark Blake v Peter Learyjnr (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Mark Blake. Result: 15-12,12-15,15-7,9-15,15-10.

Starting level for Mark Blake: 1,850, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,919, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Peter Learyjnr to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mark Blake.

Mark Blake won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Blake played 10% better than Peter Learyjnr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Blake actually played at a level of 1,980 and Peter Learyjnr at a level of 1,793. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Blake changes to +6.9% and Peter Learyjnr changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Blake becomes +3.9% and for Peter Learyjnr becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Mark Blake is +2.9% and for Peter Learyjnr is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Blake: 85%, Peter Learyjnr: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Blake: 79%, Peter Learyjnr: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Blake: 1,901, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,866, level confidence: 83%.