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Simon Totten v Kevin Thorpe (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Kevin Thorpe. Result: 9-15,15-11,18-20,10-15.

Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,724, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kevin Thorpe: 1,599, level confidence: 31%.
Simon Totten to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Kevin Thorpe.

Kevin Thorpe won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Thorpe played 22% better than Simon Totten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Thorpe actually played at a level of 1,837 and Simon Totten at a level of 1,500. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe changes to +14% and Simon Totten changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe becomes +7% and for Simon Totten becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe is +5.3% and for Simon Totten is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Thorpe: 56%, Simon Totten: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Thorpe: 49%, Simon Totten: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Totten: 1,678, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Kevin Thorpe: 1,681, level confidence: 49%.