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Dan Easton v Martin Harding (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Dan Easton. Result: 15-7,15-12,8-15,11-15,15-8.

Starting level for Dan Easton: 2,275, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin Harding: 2,180, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Dan Easton to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Martin Harding.

Dan Easton won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Easton played 11% better than Martin Harding in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Easton actually played at a level of 2,342 and Martin Harding at a level of 2,118. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Easton changes to +2.9% and Martin Harding changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Easton becomes +2.1% and for Martin Harding becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Dan Easton is +1.6% and for Martin Harding is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Easton: 88%, Martin Harding: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Easton: 86%, Martin Harding: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Easton: 2,308, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Martin Harding: 2,143, level confidence: 86%.