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Gary Spindler v James Armstrong (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Gary Spindler. Result: 7-15,15-11,11-15,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Gary Spindler: 1,816, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for James Armstrong: 2,369, level confidence: 59%.
James Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Gary Spindler.

Gary Spindler won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Spindler played 8% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Spindler actually played at a level of 2,155 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,997. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Spindler changes to +16% and James Armstrong changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Spindler becomes +7.2% and for James Armstrong becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Gary Spindler is +5.4% and for James Armstrong is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Spindler: 78%, James Armstrong: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Spindler: 66%, James Armstrong: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Spindler: 1,912, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for James Armstrong: 2,253, level confidence: 65%.