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Robin McCorquodale v Howard Hawkins (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Howard Hawkins. Result: 12-15,9-15,5-15.

Starting level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,933, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Howard Hawkins: 1,753, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Robin McCorquodale to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Howard Hawkins.

Howard Hawkins won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Howard Hawkins played 73% better than Robin McCorquodale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Howard Hawkins actually played at a level of 2,422 and Robin McCorquodale at a level of 1,399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Howard Hawkins changes to +35% and Robin McCorquodale changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Howard Hawkins becomes +14.3% and for Robin McCorquodale becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Howard Hawkins is +10.8% and for Robin McCorquodale is -10.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Howard Hawkins is limited to +10% and Robin McCorquodale is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Howard Hawkins: 88%, Robin McCorquodale: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Howard Hawkins: 64%, Robin McCorquodale: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,824, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Howard Hawkins: 1,925, level confidence: 64%.