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Phil Jenkins v Mark Roper (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Mark Roper. Result: 17-19,15-9,15-8,13-15,13-15.

Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,480, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Roper: 2,096, level confidence: 56%.
Mark Roper to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Phil Jenkins.

Mark Roper won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Roper played 5% better than Phil Jenkins in this match.

As Mark Roper has played below his allowed range at 1,730, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Roper would normally have been playing at level 2,018 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Roper changes to -9.4% and Phil Jenkins changes to +8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Roper becomes -4.6% and for Phil Jenkins becomes +4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Mark Roper is -3.4% and for Phil Jenkins is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Roper: 75%, Phil Jenkins: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Roper: 64%, Phil Jenkins: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Jenkins: 1,532, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mark Roper: 2,023, level confidence: 64%.