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Richard Betts v Robert Brooks (Tue 26 Feb 2013)

Match won by Richard Betts. Result: 15-11,15-13,13-15,15-4.

Starting level for Richard Betts: 2,165, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,875, level confidence: 68%.
Richard Betts to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Robert Brooks.

Richard Betts won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Betts played 28% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Betts actually played at a level of 2,282 and Robert Brooks at a level of 1,779. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Betts changes to +4.5% and Robert Brooks changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Betts becomes +2.8% and for Robert Brooks becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Richard Betts is +2.1% and for Robert Brooks is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Betts: 87%, Robert Brooks: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Betts: 83%, Robert Brooks: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Betts: 2,207, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,829, level confidence: 78%.