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Craig Perry v Karl Pyle (Wed 27 Feb 2013)

Match won by Karl Pyle. Result: 15-10,4-15,9-15,6-15.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,730, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karl Pyle: 1,828, level confidence: 68%.
Karl Pyle to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Craig Perry.

Karl Pyle won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Pyle played 37% better than Craig Perry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karl Pyle actually played at a level of 2,082 and Craig Perry at a level of 1,519. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Pyle changes to +14% and Craig Perry changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Pyle becomes +6.4% and for Craig Perry becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Karl Pyle is +4.8% and for Craig Perry is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Pyle: 83%, Craig Perry: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Pyle: 73%, Craig Perry: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 1,657, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Karl Pyle: 1,913, level confidence: 73%.