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Nick Cooper v Andrew James (Wed 27 Feb 2013)

Match won by Andrew James. Result: 11-15,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Nick Cooper: 817, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Andrew James: 1,450, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Andrew James to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Nick Cooper.

Andrew James won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew James played 61% better than Nick Cooper in this match.

In this case, Andrew James played at level 1,318 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andrew James would normally have been playing at level 1,323 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Cooper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew James changes to 0% and Nick Cooper changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew James becomes 0% and for Nick Cooper becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Andrew James is 0% and for Nick Cooper is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew James: 94%, Nick Cooper: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew James: 89%, Nick Cooper: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Cooper: 817, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Andrew James: 1,448, level confidence: 89%.