SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Richard Hicks v Barry Sturgeon (Wed 27 Feb 2013)

Match won by Richard Hicks. Result: 15-7,15-9,15-17,15-8.

Starting level for Richard Hicks: 3,144, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,600, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Richard Hicks to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Barry Sturgeon.

Richard Hicks won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Hicks played 32% better than Barry Sturgeon in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richard Hicks was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,372 and 3,144 without affecting his level.

As Richard Hicks has played below his allowed range at 2,239, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Richard Hicks would normally have been playing at level 2,774 (based on typical behaviour), Barry Sturgeon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Hicks changes to -4.2% and Barry Sturgeon changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Hicks becomes -2.4% and for Barry Sturgeon becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Richard Hicks is -1.8% and for Barry Sturgeon is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Hicks: 49%, Barry Sturgeon: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Hicks: 40%, Barry Sturgeon: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Hicks: 3,083, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,629, level confidence: 71%.