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Phil Littlefair v Nick Boardman (Wed 27 Feb 2013)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 15-13,13-15,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,417, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Nick Boardman: 1,397, level confidence: 51%.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Nick Boardman.

Phil Littlefair won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 21% better than Nick Boardman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Littlefair actually played at a level of 1,545 and Nick Boardman at a level of 1,281. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to +8.1% and Nick Boardman changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes +4.8% and for Nick Boardman becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is +3.6% and for Nick Boardman is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 75%, Nick Boardman: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 69%, Nick Boardman: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,466, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Nick Boardman: 1,343, level confidence: 66%.