Keeley Peacock v Dave Rawlings (Thu 28 Feb 2013)
Match won by Dave Rawlings. Result: 12-15,8-15,9-15.
Starting level for
Keeley Peacock:
1,367, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Dave Rawlings:
1,889, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Dave Rawlings to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Keeley Peacock.
Dave Rawlings won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Rawlings played
55% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Rawlings actually played at a level of
2,001 and Keeley Peacock at a level of
1,290. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Rawlings changes to +2.9% and Keeley Peacock changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Rawlings becomes +2.3% and for Keeley Peacock becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Dave Rawlings is +1.7% and for Keeley Peacock is -2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Rawlings: 94%, Keeley Peacock: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Rawlings: 89%, Keeley Peacock: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Keeley Peacock:
1,330, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings:
1,919, level confidence: 89%.