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Sid Newbon v Stephen Wells (Thu 28 Feb 2013)

Match won by Stephen Wells. Result: 10-15,9-15,15-12,14-16.

Starting level for Sid Newbon: 1,123, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Stephen Wells: 1,193, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Stephen Wells to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Sid Newbon.

Stephen Wells won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Wells played 24% better than Sid Newbon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Wells actually played at a level of 1,287 and Sid Newbon at a level of 1,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Wells changes to +6.4% and Sid Newbon changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Wells becomes +4.3% and for Sid Newbon becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Stephen Wells is +3.2% and for Sid Newbon is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Wells: 88%, Sid Newbon: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Wells: 82%, Sid Newbon: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sid Newbon: 1,081, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Stephen Wells: 1,230, level confidence: 82%.