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Mike Richards v Jordan Ryan (Tue 05 Mar 2013)

Match won by Mike Richards. Result: 10-15,15-6,13-15,15-10,15-10.

Starting level for Mike Richards: 2,364, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 2,241, level confidence: 67%.
Mike Richards to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Jordan Ryan.

Mike Richards won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Richards played 13% better than Jordan Ryan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Richards actually played at a level of 2,445 and Jordan Ryan at a level of 2,167. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Richards changes to +3.1% and Jordan Ryan changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Richards becomes +2.2% and for Jordan Ryan becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Mike Richards is +1.7% and for Jordan Ryan is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Richards: 85%, Jordan Ryan: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Richards: 83%, Jordan Ryan: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Richards: 2,400, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Jordan Ryan: 2,199, level confidence: 79%.