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Tony Stewart v Nev Rimes (Wed 06 Mar 2013)

Match won by Tony Stewart. Result: 16-14,15-10,15-11.

Starting level for Tony Stewart: 2,067, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,668, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Tony Stewart to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Nev Rimes.

Tony Stewart won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tony Stewart played 39% better than Nev Rimes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tony Stewart actually played at a level of 2,191 and Nev Rimes at a level of 1,574. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tony Stewart changes to +5.4% and Nev Rimes changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tony Stewart becomes +3.2% and for Nev Rimes becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Tony Stewart is +2.4% and for Nev Rimes is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tony Stewart: 91%, Nev Rimes: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tony Stewart: 86%, Nev Rimes: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tony Stewart: 2,113, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,624, level confidence: 86%.