Kachinga Kabwe v Keeley Peacock (Thu 07 Mar 2013)
Match won by Kachinga Kabwe. Result: 15-8,15-8,15-10.
Starting level for
Kachinga Kabwe:
4,120, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keeley Peacock:
1,331, level confidence: 66%.
Kachinga Kabwe to win as he is currently playing
210% better than Keeley Peacock.
Kachinga Kabwe won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kachinga Kabwe played
73% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kachinga Kabwe was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,128 and 4,120 without affecting his level.
In this case, Kachinga Kabwe played at level 2,660 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kachinga Kabwe would normally have been playing at level 3,071 (based on typical behaviour), Keeley Peacock played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe changes to 0% and Keeley Peacock changes to +8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe becomes 0% and for Keeley Peacock becomes +5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe is 0% and for Keeley Peacock is +3.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kachinga Kabwe: 87%, Keeley Peacock: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kachinga Kabwe: 65%, Keeley Peacock: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Kachinga Kabwe:
4,114, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Keeley Peacock:
1,380, level confidence: 61%.