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Jordan Ryan v James Armstrong (Tue 12 Mar 2013)

Match won by Jordan Ryan. Result: 16-14,15-8,5-15,15-7.

Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 2,199, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Armstrong: 2,214, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
James Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Jordan Ryan.

Jordan Ryan won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Ryan played 22% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jordan Ryan actually played at a level of 2,437 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,998. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan changes to +10.8% and James Armstrong changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan becomes +5% and for James Armstrong becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Jordan Ryan is +3.8% and for James Armstrong is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Ryan: 88%, James Armstrong: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Ryan: 79%, James Armstrong: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Ryan: 2,279, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Armstrong: 2,136, level confidence: 83%.