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Guy Hessing v Mark Slaney (Tue 12 Mar 2013)

Match won by Guy Hessing. Result: 15-8,11-15,4-15,15-8,15-10.

Starting level for Guy Hessing: 1,140, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Slaney: 1,163, level confidence: 63%.
Mark Slaney to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Guy Hessing.

Guy Hessing won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Guy Hessing played 9% better than Mark Slaney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Guy Hessing actually played at a level of 1,204 and Mark Slaney at a level of 1,101. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Guy Hessing changes to +4.9% and Mark Slaney changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Guy Hessing becomes +3.7% and for Mark Slaney becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Guy Hessing is +2.8% and for Mark Slaney is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Guy Hessing: 84%, Mark Slaney: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Guy Hessing: 80%, Mark Slaney: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Guy Hessing: 1,170, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mark Slaney: 1,127, level confidence: 75%.