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Rory Pennell v Elliot Selby (Thu 14 Mar 2013)

Match won by Rory Pennell. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Rory Pennell: 10,142, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Elliot Selby: 4,108, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Rory Pennell to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Elliot Selby.

Rory Pennell won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Pennell played 30% better than Elliot Selby in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rory Pennell was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,441 and 10,142 without affecting his level.

As Rory Pennell has played below his allowed range at 5,864, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that Rory Pennell would normally have been playing at level 8,289 (based on typical behaviour), Elliot Selby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Pennell changes to -6.2% and Elliot Selby changes to +10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Pennell becomes -2.3% and for Elliot Selby becomes +4.2%.

Given Rory Pennell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Rory Pennell is -1.4% and for Elliot Selby is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Pennell: 73%, Elliot Selby: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Pennell: 53%, Elliot Selby: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rory Pennell: 9,983, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Elliot Selby: 4,232, level confidence: 62%.