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Kachinga Kabwe v Dave Rawlings (Thu 14 Mar 2013)

Match won by Kachinga Kabwe. Result: 15-9,15-8,15-11.

Starting level for Kachinga Kabwe: 4,206, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Rawlings: 1,838, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Kachinga Kabwe to win as he is currently playing 129% better than Dave Rawlings.

Kachinga Kabwe won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kachinga Kabwe played 61% better than Dave Rawlings in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kachinga Kabwe was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,837 and 4,206 without affecting his level.

In this case, Kachinga Kabwe played at level 3,229 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kachinga Kabwe would normally have been playing at level 3,531 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Rawlings played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe changes to 0% and Dave Rawlings changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe becomes 0% and for Dave Rawlings becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Kachinga Kabwe is 0% and for Dave Rawlings is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kachinga Kabwe: 84%, Dave Rawlings: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kachinga Kabwe: 70%, Dave Rawlings: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kachinga Kabwe: 4,200, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings: 1,881, level confidence: 75%.