SquashLevels calculations
Andrew Taylor v Tom Chitty (Thu 14 Mar 2013)
Match won by Tom Chitty. Result: 5-11,11-9,8-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Andrew Taylor:
3,266, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Chitty:
4,241, level confidence: 43%.
Tom Chitty to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Andrew Taylor.
Tom Chitty won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Chitty played
28% better than Andrew Taylor in this match.
In this case, Tom Chitty played at level 4,195 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Andrew Taylor is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Chitty: 65%, Andrew Taylor: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Chitty: 65%, Andrew Taylor: 90%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andrew Taylor:
3,261, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Tom Chitty:
4,235, level confidence: 65%.