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Alex Ingham v Nick Mulvey (Thu 14 Mar 2013)

Match won by Alex Ingham. Result: 11-8,11-5,8-11,11-7.

Starting level for Alex Ingham: 13,177, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Nick Mulvey: 8,853, level confidence: 69%.
Alex Ingham to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Nick Mulvey.

Alex Ingham won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Ingham played 27% better than Nick Mulvey in this match.

As Alex Ingham has played below his allowed range at 11,552, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Ingham would normally have been playing at level 12,562 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Mulvey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Ingham changes to -2% and Nick Mulvey changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Ingham becomes -0.9% and for Nick Mulvey becomes +1.9%.

Given Alex Ingham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Mulvey's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2012/2013' so the adjustment for Alex Ingham is -0.6% and for Nick Mulvey is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Ingham: 81%, Nick Mulvey: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Ingham: 75%, Nick Mulvey: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Ingham: 13,084, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nick Mulvey: 8,948, level confidence: 77%.