Pete Burdett v Tony Stewart (Tue 01 Oct 2013)
Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 15-12,15-4,15-10.
Starting level for
Pete Burdett:
2,963, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tony Stewart:
2,219, level confidence: 59%.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Tony Stewart.
Pete Burdett won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played
73% better than Tony Stewart in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pete Burdett actually played at a level of
3,373 and Tony Stewart at a level of
1,949. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to +9.7% and Tony Stewart changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes +4.2% and for Tony Stewart becomes -5.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is +3.2% and for Tony Stewart is -4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 85%, Tony Stewart: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 75%, Tony Stewart: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Pete Burdett:
3,053, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tony Stewart:
2,130, level confidence: 68%.