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James Armstrong v Dominic Webster (Tue 01 Oct 2013)

Match won by James Armstrong. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-9.

Starting level for James Armstrong: 2,284, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,467, level confidence: 26%.
James Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Dominic Webster.

James Armstrong won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Armstrong played 105% better than Dominic Webster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Armstrong actually played at a level of 2,618 and Dominic Webster at a level of 1,280. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Armstrong changes to +4.4% and Dominic Webster changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Armstrong becomes +2.7% and for Dominic Webster becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for James Armstrong is +2% and for Dominic Webster is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Armstrong: 82%, Dominic Webster: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Armstrong: 72%, Dominic Webster: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Armstrong: 2,327, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,401, level confidence: 44%.