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Ryan Mays v John McFarlane (Tue 01 Oct 2013)

Match won by John McFarlane. Result: 15-13,11-15,6-15,5-15.

Starting level for Ryan Mays: 2,324, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for John McFarlane: 2,549, level confidence: 19%.
John McFarlane to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Ryan Mays.

John McFarlane won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John McFarlane played 35% better than Ryan Mays in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John McFarlane actually played at a level of 2,833 and Ryan Mays at a level of 2,091. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John McFarlane changes to +5.6% and Ryan Mays changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John McFarlane becomes +3% and for Ryan Mays becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for John McFarlane is +2.3% and for Ryan Mays is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John McFarlane: 43%, Ryan Mays: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John McFarlane: 39%, Ryan Mays: 28%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Mays: 2,239, level confidence: 28%.
Final level for John McFarlane: 2,603, level confidence: 39%.