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Mat Bowyer v Kevin Springham (Tue 01 Oct 2013)

Match won by Mat Bowyer. Result: 15-13,13-15,10-15,15-11,15-8.

Starting level for Mat Bowyer: 2,292, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for Kevin Springham: 2,333, level confidence: 54%.
Kevin Springham to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Mat Bowyer.

Mat Bowyer won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mat Bowyer played 10% better than Kevin Springham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mat Bowyer actually played at a level of 2,424 and Kevin Springham at a level of 2,206. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mat Bowyer changes to +5.7% and Kevin Springham changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mat Bowyer becomes +3.2% and for Kevin Springham becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Mat Bowyer is +2.4% and for Kevin Springham is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mat Bowyer: 61%, Kevin Springham: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mat Bowyer: 58%, Kevin Springham: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mat Bowyer: 2,343, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Kevin Springham: 2,286, level confidence: 69%.