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Sam McCoy v Barry Sturgeon (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Sam McCoy. Result: 16-14,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Sam McCoy: 837, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,629, level confidence: 29%.
Barry Sturgeon to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Sam McCoy.

Sam McCoy won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam McCoy played 57% better than Barry Sturgeon in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam McCoy actually played at a level of 1,465 and Barry Sturgeon at a level of 931. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 75% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 49% and 49% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam McCoy changes to +49% and Barry Sturgeon changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam McCoy becomes +24% and for Barry Sturgeon becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Sam McCoy is +18% and for Barry Sturgeon is -4.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam McCoy is limited to +17% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam McCoy: 32%, Barry Sturgeon: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam McCoy: 18%, Barry Sturgeon: 31%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam McCoy: 977, level confidence: 18%.
Final level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,589, level confidence: 31%.