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Tom Bensley v Keeley Peacock (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Tom Bensley. Result: 15-4,15-9,8-15,9-15,15-7.

Starting level for Tom Bensley: 1,462, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,381, level confidence: 56%.
Tom Bensley to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Keeley Peacock.

Tom Bensley won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Bensley played 14% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Bensley actually played at a level of 1,514 and Keeley Peacock at a level of 1,334. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Bensley changes to +3.4% and Keeley Peacock changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Bensley becomes +2.8% and for Keeley Peacock becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Bensley is +2.1% and for Keeley Peacock is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Bensley: 50%, Keeley Peacock: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Bensley: 48%, Keeley Peacock: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Bensley: 1,490, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,365, level confidence: 72%.