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Mark Castle v Mark Illot (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Mark Castle. Result: 13-15,15-10,15-5,15-10.

Starting level for Mark Castle: 1,167, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Illot: 808, level confidence: 10%.
Mark Castle to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Mark Illot.

Mark Castle won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Castle played 32% better than Mark Illot in this match.

In this case, Mark Castle played at level 1,091 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Castle would normally have been playing at level 1,119 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Illot played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Castle changes to 0% and Mark Illot changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Castle becomes 0% and for Mark Illot becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Mark Castle is 0% and for Mark Illot is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Castle: 84%, Mark Illot: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Castle: 80%, Mark Illot: 30%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Castle: 1,165, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mark Illot: 820, level confidence: 30%.