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Tom Simcox v Phil Littlefair (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Tom Simcox. Result: 15-7,15-4,15-0.

Starting level for Tom Simcox: 1,649, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,204, level confidence: 69%.
Tom Simcox to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Phil Littlefair.

Tom Simcox won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 309% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Simcox played 309% better than Phil Littlefair in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Simcox actually played at a level of 2,850 and Phil Littlefair at a level of 697. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 73% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 60% and 60% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Simcox changes to +60% and Phil Littlefair changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Simcox becomes +22.7% and for Phil Littlefair becomes -18%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Simcox is +17% and for Phil Littlefair is -13%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Simcox is limited to +10% and Phil Littlefair is limited to -7.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Simcox: 72%, Phil Littlefair: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Simcox: 41%, Phil Littlefair: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Simcox: 1,811, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,115, level confidence: 48%.