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Chris Ginn v Steve Leverington (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Chris Ginn. Result: 16-14,15-7,16-14.

Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,613, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,344, level confidence: 58%.
Chris Ginn to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Steve Leverington.

Chris Ginn won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Ginn played 41% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Ginn actually played at a level of 1,749 and Steve Leverington at a level of 1,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Ginn changes to +7.7% and Steve Leverington changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Ginn becomes +4.4% and for Steve Leverington becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Chris Ginn is +3.3% and for Steve Leverington is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Ginn: 65%, Steve Leverington: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Ginn: 60%, Steve Leverington: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,664, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,305, level confidence: 70%.