SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Tom Horton v Paul Starkey (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Tom Horton. Result: 18-20,18-16,15-7,15-7.

Starting level for Tom Horton: 1,152, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,377, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Starkey to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Tom Horton.

Tom Horton won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Horton played 27% better than Paul Starkey in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Horton actually played at a level of 1,421 and Paul Starkey at a level of 1,116. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Horton changes to +21% and Paul Starkey changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Horton becomes +11% and for Paul Starkey becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Horton is +8.3% and for Paul Starkey is -6.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Horton: 81%, Paul Starkey: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Horton: 65%, Paul Starkey: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Horton: 1,245, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,288, level confidence: 69%.