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Chris Keating v Karl Fenwick (Wed 02 Oct 2013)

Match won by Chris Keating. Result: 15-5,15-12,15-4.

Starting level for Chris Keating: 1,443, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,287, level confidence: 65%.
Chris Keating to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Karl Fenwick.

Chris Keating won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Keating played 114% better than Karl Fenwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Keating actually played at a level of 1,995 and Karl Fenwick at a level of 931. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Keating changes to +36% and Karl Fenwick changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Keating becomes +15.6% and for Karl Fenwick becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Chris Keating is +12% and for Karl Fenwick is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Keating: 32%, Karl Fenwick: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Keating: 23%, Karl Fenwick: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Keating: 1,609, level confidence: 23%.
Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,254, level confidence: 58%.