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Darren Matussa v Ian Collin (Thu 03 Oct 2013)

Match won by Darren Matussa. Result: 15-13,15-10,15-9.

Starting level for Darren Matussa: 1,571, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,672, level confidence: 56%.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Darren Matussa.

Darren Matussa won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Matussa played 45% better than Ian Collin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Matussa actually played at a level of 1,954 and Ian Collin at a level of 1,344. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Matussa changes to +24% and Ian Collin changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Matussa becomes +10.6% and for Ian Collin becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Darren Matussa is +8% and for Ian Collin is -6.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Matussa: 71%, Ian Collin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Matussa: 57%, Ian Collin: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Matussa: 1,693, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Ian Collin: 1,564, level confidence: 60%.