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Eamonn Price v Las Fernando (Thu 03 Oct 2013)

Match won by Eamonn Price. Result: 7-11,11-9,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Eamonn Price: 6,110, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Las Fernando: 3,762, level confidence: 25%.
Eamonn Price to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Las Fernando.

Eamonn Price won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eamonn Price played 39% better than Las Fernando in this match.

As Eamonn Price has played below his allowed range at 5,233, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Eamonn Price would normally have been playing at level 5,710 (based on typical behaviour), Las Fernando played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eamonn Price changes to 0% and Las Fernando changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eamonn Price becomes -0.1% and for Las Fernando becomes +2.1%.

Given Eamonn Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Eamonn Price is 0% and for Las Fernando is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eamonn Price: 66%, Las Fernando: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eamonn Price: 61%, Las Fernando: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eamonn Price: 6,098, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Las Fernando: 3,815, level confidence: 47%.