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Thomas Phipps v Rory Pennell (Thu 03 Oct 2013)

Match won by Rory Pennell. Result: 7-11,6-11,14-12,6-11.

Starting level for Thomas Phipps: 6,591, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Rory Pennell: 11,317, level confidence: 32%.
Rory Pennell to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Thomas Phipps.

Rory Pennell won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Pennell played 29% better than Thomas Phipps in this match.

As Rory Pennell has played below his allowed range at 8,933, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Rory Pennell would normally have been playing at level 10,423 (based on typical behaviour), Thomas Phipps played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Pennell changes to -3.9% and Thomas Phipps changes to +8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Pennell becomes -1.7% and for Thomas Phipps becomes +3%.

Given Rory Pennell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Thomas Phipps's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Rory Pennell is -1% and for Thomas Phipps is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Pennell: 56%, Thomas Phipps: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Pennell: 49%, Thomas Phipps: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Phipps: 6,721, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Rory Pennell: 11,183, level confidence: 49%.