SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Adrian Rodrigues v Paul Gandolfo (Thu 03 Oct 2013)

Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 8-15,9-15,6-15.

Starting level for Adrian Rodrigues: 1,411, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,283, level confidence: 64%.
Adrian Rodrigues to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Paul Gandolfo.

Paul Gandolfo won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played 96% better than Adrian Rodrigues in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gandolfo actually played at a level of 1,882 and Adrian Rodrigues at a level of 962. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to +21% and Adrian Rodrigues changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes +10.4% and for Adrian Rodrigues becomes -19%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is +7.8% and for Adrian Rodrigues is -13%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 80%, Adrian Rodrigues: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 54%, Adrian Rodrigues: 37%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Rodrigues: 1,242, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,381, level confidence: 54%.