SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Phil Jenkins v Chris Patten (Thu 03 Oct 2013)

Match won by Phil Jenkins. Result: 15-11,11-15,15-12,15-9.

Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,974, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Chris Patten: 1,796, level confidence: 36%.
Phil Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Chris Patten.

Phil Jenkins won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Jenkins played 23% better than Chris Patten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Jenkins actually played at a level of 2,089 and Chris Patten at a level of 1,697. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Jenkins changes to +3.4% and Chris Patten changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Jenkins becomes +2.5% and for Chris Patten becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Phil Jenkins is +1.8% and for Chris Patten is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Jenkins: 76%, Chris Patten: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Jenkins: 72%, Chris Patten: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Jenkins: 2,007, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Chris Patten: 1,749, level confidence: 56%.