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James Clyne v Pete Burdett (Tue 08 Oct 2013)

Match won by James Clyne. Result: 12-15,15-10,2-15,15-10,15-11.

Starting level for James Clyne: 2,866, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Pete Burdett: 3,053, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing 7% better than James Clyne.

James Clyne won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Clyne played 7% better than Pete Burdett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Clyne actually played at a level of 3,055 and Pete Burdett at a level of 2,864. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Clyne changes to +6.4% and Pete Burdett changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Clyne becomes +3.2% and for Pete Burdett becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for James Clyne is +2.4% and for Pete Burdett is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Clyne: 85%, Pete Burdett: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Clyne: 79%, Pete Burdett: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Clyne: 2,930, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Pete Burdett: 2,979, level confidence: 80%.