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Robert Brooks v Robin McCorquodale (Tue 08 Oct 2013)

Match won by Robin McCorquodale. Result: 8-15,15-6,9-15,15-9,4-15.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,621, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,923, level confidence: 55%.
Robin McCorquodale to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Robert Brooks.

Robin McCorquodale won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin McCorquodale played 12% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

As Robin McCorquodale has played below his allowed range at 1,849, his level reduction is 2% before damping. On the assumption that Robin McCorquodale would normally have been playing at level 1,906 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Brooks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale changes to -1.8% and Robert Brooks changes to +1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale becomes -1.4% and for Robert Brooks becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale is -1% and for Robert Brooks is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin McCorquodale: 74%, Robert Brooks: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin McCorquodale: 72%, Robert Brooks: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,636, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,900, level confidence: 72%.