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Phil Power v Sam McCoy (Wed 09 Oct 2013)

Match won by Sam McCoy. Result: 9-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Phil Power: 1,810, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Sam McCoy: 1,050, level confidence: 32%.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Sam McCoy.

Sam McCoy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam McCoy played 43% better than Phil Power in this match. An upset!

Sam McCoy has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 1333. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam McCoy actually played at a level of 1,854 and Phil Power at a level of 1,301. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam McCoy changes to +33% and Phil Power changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam McCoy becomes +14.9% and for Phil Power becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Sam McCoy is +11% and for Phil Power is -4.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Sam McCoy is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Sam McCoy is +40%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam McCoy: 56%, Phil Power: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam McCoy: 36%, Phil Power: 53%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Power: 1,767, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Sam McCoy: 1,465, level confidence: 36%.