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Adam Clark v Tom Bensley (Wed 09 Oct 2013)

Match won by Adam Clark. Result: 15-9,15-10,15-7.

Starting level for Adam Clark: 1,587, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Bensley: 1,491, level confidence: 47%.
Adam Clark to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Tom Bensley.

Adam Clark won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Clark played 73% better than Tom Bensley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Clark actually played at a level of 2,024 and Tom Bensley at a level of 1,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Clark changes to +18% and Tom Bensley changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Clark becomes +8.4% and for Tom Bensley becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Adam Clark is +6.3% and for Tom Bensley is -8.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Bensley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Clark: 84%, Tom Bensley: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Clark: 66%, Tom Bensley: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Clark: 1,684, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tom Bensley: 1,418, level confidence: 54%.