Karl Fenwick v Craig Basham (Wed 09 Oct 2013)
Match won by Craig Basham. Result: 11-15,16-18,15-13,11-15.
Starting level for
Karl Fenwick:
1,254, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Craig Basham:
1,971, level confidence: 58%.
Craig Basham to win as he is currently playing
57% better than Karl Fenwick.
Craig Basham won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Basham played
22% better than Karl Fenwick in this match.
As Craig Basham has played below his allowed range at 1,622, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Craig Basham would normally have been playing at level 1,856 (based on typical behaviour), Karl Fenwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 8.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Basham changes to -4.8% and Karl Fenwick changes to +8.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Basham becomes -3% and for Karl Fenwick becomes +5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Craig Basham is -2.3% and for Karl Fenwick is +3.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Basham: 76%, Karl Fenwick: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Basham: 67%, Karl Fenwick: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Karl Fenwick:
1,299, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Craig Basham:
1,925, level confidence: 67%.