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Shola Bello v Alan Howell (Wed 09 Oct 2013)

Match won by Shola Bello. Result: 16-14,15-9,10-15,11-15,19-17.

Starting level for Shola Bello: 1,583, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,436, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Shola Bello to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Alan Howell.

Shola Bello won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shola Bello played 8% better than Alan Howell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shola Bello actually played at a level of 1,566 and Alan Howell at a level of 1,452. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shola Bello changes to -1% and Alan Howell changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shola Bello becomes -0.9% and for Alan Howell becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Shola Bello is -0.7% and for Alan Howell is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shola Bello: 85%, Alan Howell: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shola Bello: 84%, Alan Howell: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shola Bello: 1,570, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,443, level confidence: 89%.