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Karl Pyle v Chris Ginn (Wed 09 Oct 2013)

Match won by Karl Pyle. Result: 15-7,12-15,6-15,17-15,15-11.

Starting level for Karl Pyle: 2,070, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,663, level confidence: 58%.
Karl Pyle to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Chris Ginn.

Karl Pyle won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Pyle played 8% better than Chris Ginn in this match.

As Karl Pyle has played below his allowed range at 1,897, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Karl Pyle would normally have been playing at level 2,038 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Ginn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Pyle changes to -3.8% and Chris Ginn changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Pyle becomes -2.6% and for Chris Ginn becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Karl Pyle is -2% and for Chris Ginn is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Pyle: 84%, Chris Ginn: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Pyle: 79%, Chris Ginn: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Pyle: 2,027, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,705, level confidence: 71%.