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Graham Higgins v Scot Adam (Wed 09 Oct 2013)

Match won by Scot Adam. Result: 13-15,15-17,13-15.

Starting level for Graham Higgins: 1,390, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Scot Adam: 1,606, level confidence: 53%.
Scot Adam to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Graham Higgins.

Scot Adam won all of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scot Adam played 28% better than Graham Higgins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scot Adam actually played at a level of 1,690 and Graham Higgins at a level of 1,321. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scot Adam changes to +4.9% and Graham Higgins changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scot Adam becomes +3.2% and for Graham Higgins becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Scot Adam is +2.4% and for Graham Higgins is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scot Adam: 73%, Graham Higgins: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scot Adam: 69%, Graham Higgins: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Graham Higgins: 1,358, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Scot Adam: 1,643, level confidence: 69%.