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James Armstrong v Mike Richards (Tue 15 Oct 2013)

Match won by Mike Richards. Result: 7-15,5-15,11-15.

Starting level for James Armstrong: 2,418, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Richards: 2,538, level confidence: 61%.
Mike Richards to win as he is currently playing 5% better than James Armstrong.

Mike Richards won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Richards played 96% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Richards actually played at a level of 3,465 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,771. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Richards changes to +36% and James Armstrong changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Richards becomes +12.6% and for James Armstrong becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Mike Richards is +9.5% and for James Armstrong is -8.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that James Armstrong is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Richards: 78%, James Armstrong: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Richards: 57%, James Armstrong: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Armstrong: 2,299, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Mike Richards: 2,774, level confidence: 57%.